A new era began in Azerbaijan in 2003 when Heydar Aliyev handed over his duties to his son Ilham Aliyev due to health problems. Following in his father's footsteps, Ilham Aliyev pursued policies aimed at continuing economic development and resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. However, in the process, he faced many difficulties, both in domestic politics and in the international arena.

1. Ilham Aliyev's Assumption

• 2003 Presidential Election:
  • With the support of Heydar Aliyev, Ilham Aliyev was elected President of Azerbaijan in the elections held in 2003. This transition ensured the preservation of political stability in the country.
• Heydar Aliyev's legacy:
  • Ilham Aliyev aimed to make Azerbaijan a regional power by continuing his father's policies. During this period, economic development and energy projects were the priority issues.

2. Economic Development and Energy Policies

a) Oil and Natural Gas Investments

• Development of the Energy Sector:
  • Ilham Aliyev initiated major projects for the processing of oil and natural gas resources and their delivery to international markets. Projects such as Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) and TANAP (Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline) have become the cornerstones of Azerbaijan's energy strategy.
• Economic Growth:
  • Thanks to oil revenues, Azerbaijan experienced a period of rapid economic growth in the early 2000s. Major improvements have been made in infrastructure projects and social services.

b) Diversification Difficulty:

• Dependence on Oil:
  • Despite economic development, the Azerbaijani economy remained largely dependent on the energy sector. Fluctuations in oil prices have threatened economic stability at times.
• Industrial and Agricultural Development:
  • Ilham Aliyev tried to carry out reforms in the industrial and agricultural sectors with the aim of diversifying the economy, but the desired success in this process was not fully achieved.

3. Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

a) Continuation of the Status Quo:

• Ilham Aliyev continued peace talks with Armenia between 2003 and 2020. But despite international mediation efforts, the status quo over Nagorno-Karabakh has not changed.
• Diplomatic Efforts:
  • Negotiations under the umbrella of the Minsk Group (USA, France, Russia) did not yield any results. This situation increased the impatience of the people regarding the Karabakh issue.

b) Second Karabakh War (2020):

• Military Victory:
  • Under the leadership of Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan launched the Second Karabakh War against Armenia in September-November 2020. This war resulted in Azerbaijan regaining a large part of its occupied territories.
• Significance of Victory:
  • The Karabakh victory strengthened the popular support of Ilham Aliyev and strengthened Azerbaijan's position in the international arena.

4. Political Reforms and Democratization Problems

a) Political Stability:

• Ilham Aliyev maintained political stability in Azerbaijan and strengthened the central authority. However, this has led to criticism that pressure is being exerted on the opposition.
• Pressures on the Opposition:
  • The activities of opposition parties were restricted, and some leaders were arrested. This has led to criticism from international human rights organizations.

b) Anti-Corruption:

• Persistence of the Problem:
  • With the rapidly growing economy, corruption issues continued to be a serious problem. Although the government of Ilham Aliyev carried out various reforms in this regard, corruption was a major obstacle to the development of Azerbaijan.

5. International Relations

a) Relations with Turkey:

• During the reign of Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijani-Turkish relations became even stronger. The fraternal relationship between the two countries was strengthened by strategic projects and the victory in Karabakh.
• Shusha Declaration (2021):
  • This agreement, signed after the Karabakh victory, became an indication of the strategic partnership between the two countries.

b) Relations with Russia and the West:

• Balanced Relations with Russia:
  • Ilham Aliyev accepted Russia's mediation after the Karabakh war and carefully managed relations with Moscow.
• Energy Cooperation with the West:
  • Azerbaijan has continued to play a critical role in Europe's energy security through projects such as TANAP and TAP.

6. Challenges and Achievements

a) Challenges:

1. Dependence on Oil:

• • The dependence of the economy on oil prices led to economic fluctuations.

1. Political Criticisms:

• • The lack of democratic reforms and human rights violations have provoked criticism from the international community.

1. Lasting Peace in Karabakh:

• • Despite the 2020 victory, the failure to sign a peace agreement with Armenia and the failure to achieve lasting peace in the region remained a significant problem.

b) Achievements:

1. Karabakh Victory:

• • Ilham Aliyev's leadership restored a large part of its territory to Azerbaijan.

1. Economic Development:

• • The country's economy has grown significantly with oil and natural gas projects.

1. International Reputation:

• • Azerbaijan has become an important actor in the international arena as both a regional and global actor.

Result

The era of Ilham Aliyev was a period of difficulties and significant achievements for Azerbaijan. While the Karabakh victory has gone down in history as his greatest political achievement, the lack of democratic reforms and the oil-dependent economy have been one of the biggest criticisms. Ilham Aliyev has taken important steps towards making Azerbaijan a regional power by continuing his father's legacy.

Lesson Summary

Azerbaijan has been procuring an average of 4 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia annually, which accounts for about half of the country's yearly gas consumption. This gas is purchased from the Russian company Gazprom.

In a deal established in 2004, Gazprom committed to supplying Azerbaijan with 4 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year at a price of $52 per 1000 cubic meters for five years. However, Gazprom later raised the price to $60 and eventually to $100 per 1000 cubic meters starting from 2006, causing discomfort among Azerbaijani officials.

Ilham Aliyev took over the presidency of Azerbaijan in 2003, succeeding his father Heydar Aliyev. He continued his father's focus on economic growth and resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Under Aliyev's leadership, Azerbaijan experienced notable economic advancement, particularly through investments in the energy sector involving oil and gas projects.

• Aliyev worked towards economic diversification, but the country's heavy reliance on oil caused economic instability.
• Diplomatic efforts during Aliyev's tenure did not resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict until the Second Karabakh War in 2020, leading to Azerbaijan reclaiming territory.
• Aliyev faced criticism for limiting opposition activities, addressing corruption, and was praised for bolstering ties with Turkey and managing relations with Russia.
• He played a crucial role in Europe's energy security but struggled with issues such as democratic reforms, human rights violations, and the oil-dependent economy.